Snapping from its positive session registered yesterday, the rupee reversed its intra-day losses to settle almost flat against the US dollar on Friday, August 13, at 74.24, tracking a strong rally in domestic equities. A weaker American currency against its major rivals and lower crude oil rates also supported the local unit to recover from early losses. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic unit opened weaker at 74.27 against the dollar and registered an intra day high of 74.24.
In an early trade session, the domestic unit declined three paise to 74.28 against the greenback. It witnessed an intra day low of 74.32 during the session and remained in the negative territory for most of the session.
However, the local unit recovered all its losses towards the fag-end of the session. The local unit closed at 74.24 against the dollar, registering a gain of one paisa, against its previous close. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.14 per cent to 92.91. The rupee had a volatile session throughout the session as it mostly tracked trends in domestic equities.
What analysts say:
Mr Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex:
”Globally, the safe heaven dollar remains hovering near 92.95 levels as economic data showed a third consecutive decline in weekly jobless claims, which added to signs of steady and healing labor market recovery. Also, U.S. producer prices posted their largest increase showing signs of persisting inflationary pressures.
Domestically, economic data showed India’s retail price inflation rate eased to 5.59 per cent in July 2021, from 6.26 per cent in the previous month while Industrial production in India rose 13.6 per cent. This has eased concerns of an immediate shift of policy stance by the central bank. For the rupee, inflows on one side and RBI’s buying regime on the other side have tugged the pair in a narrow range of 74.10-74.50 levels.”
Kshitij Purohit, Lead International & Commodities at CapitalVia Global Research Limited:
”USD/INR extends bounce off weekly low to 74.26, up 0.17 per cent intraday, heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the rupee (INR) pair prints daily gain for the first time in four days during a quiet day filled with mixed catalysts and a light calendar.
Furthermore, the INR is being weighed down by cautious sentiment ahead of Indian inflation and industrial output reports.”
Domestic Equity Markets Today:
Closing over the 55,000-mark for the first time, the BSE Sensex rose as much as 593.31 points or 1.08 per cent to an all-time high of 55,437.29. The broader NSE Nifty breached the 16,500-level, advancing 164.70 points or 1.01 per cent to hit a new closing peak of 16,529.10. It surged to a record of 16,543.60 during the day.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities
”During the week, Indian markets took note of ongoing Q1FY22 earning prints, IIP, and CPI data. Aggregate Q1FY22 net profit for the Nifty-50 Index is down 3.7 per cent versus expectations.
The Nifty 50 was at 16,500 on August 13, 2021 increasing by 1.6 per cent during the week, while the Sensex was at 55,350 increasing 1.98 per cent during the week. Small & midcap indices underperformed during the week with losses of 1.67 per cent and 1.17 per cent respectively.
Going forward, markets would remain buoyant on the back of US economic recovery, bullish commodity prices, the pace of vaccination process in India, unlock measures by various states, strong GST collections, monsoon development Pan India, the accommodative stance of the RBI, and consistency of reforms from the central government.”
Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management:
“The equity market rally raged through the frontline indexes and the major sectors, amid the optimism on future earnings and the continuation soft money policy by the central bank. The current week saw the Nifty and Sensex touching all-time highs, inviting even those on the side-lines to join in.
The bright sunshine of faster economic recovery after a more or less normal monsoon do far, and the feeling of having contained the pandemic to a large extent have all contributed to the rise of the markets.
However, as the macro data on growth, employment and prices in the US start flowing in, indicating a surge in the US economy, the after-effects in the form of potential early tapering, may restrict the upward trajectory of the markets.”
According to exchange data, the foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on August 12 as they offloaded shares worth Rs 212.11 crore. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.13 per cent to $ 71.22 per barrel.