September-End Quarter Growth Likely At 7.7%, Says ICRA

Rating agency ICRA has said that economic growth in second half of current fiscal is likely to be better

As half of the 15 high frequency indicators have reached the pre-pandemic levels in the September-end quarter of the current financial year, the economy is expected to grow at 7.7 per cent for the period, though slightly behind the levels of second quarter of 2019-20, rating agency ICRA has said.

In a research note, the rating agency also noted that the month of September was not good in comparison to the overall July-September quarter of 2021-22 and economic recovery remains uneven.

While continued base normalisation, emerging supply-side constraints and excess rainfall have dampened the year-on performance of most of the 15 high-frequency indicators in September, the economic recovery has widened in the second quarter of the current fiscal, as the crisis wrought by the second wave has abated, with a larger number of sectors bettering their pre-pandemic performance, compared to the first quarter of 2021-22, ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar said in the note.

Except for non-food bank credit, the annual performance of 14 out of the 15 high-frequency indicators fell in the month of September 2021, the agency said, compared to August 2021.

Ms Nayar said that the daily average generation of the GST e-way bills in October 2021 is likely to cross the highs seen during the February-March 2021 period.

This shows that economic growth is likely to be better in the second half of the current financial year, the rating agency said.

Despite better economic recovery in second quarter of the current fiscal with larger number of sectors showing improved performances over their pre-pandemic levels, the overall revival has shown a lot of variation in pace, said Ms Nayar.

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